Fine art auctions have lost some of their post-pandemic heat. New analysis points to a 10 percent year-over-year contraction in first-half 2025 auction sales—marking a third straight first-half decline—and a market that continues to drift away from eight-figure trophies toward lower-priced, often emerging artists and overlooked categories. (Bank of America Private Bank)
The shift caps a turbulent five-year arc. After the 2021–2022 boom, the high end cooled sharply through 2023 and 2024 as financing costs rose and speculative demand ebbed. By last year, total global art sales had fallen 12 percent to an estimated $57.5 billion—the second annual decline—while the under-$5,000 band actually strengthened, underscoring a migration to accessible price points. Works above $10 million were hit hardest, with sales in that tier plunging roughly 45 percent. (Art Basel Art Market)
What’s driving the downturn
Bank of America’s fall market update singles out a decisive turn away from “high-ticket” purchases. Collectors are still active, but they are negotiating harder and buying differently: smaller budgets, more private deals, and rising interest in artists and geographies once peripheral to the big evening sales. The headline number—fine art auction sales down 10 percent—captures that recalibration at the rostrum even as broader collecting continues. (Bank of America Private Bank)
The fragility of the very top is visible in the sales mix. Compared with 2022, the value of the priciest auction lots has thinned out, with high estimates missed more frequently and fewer guarantee-backed blockbusters anchoring evening sessions. Industry figures describe a “price-sensitive” market: people are buying, but the appetite for paying record premiums has faded, especially for ultra-contemporary names that soared earlier in the decade. (Art Newspaper)
Macro forces haven’t helped. Higher rates, volatile equities and geopolitics have raised the opportunity cost of locking up capital in art. In Asia, demand that once underwrote marquee consignments softened; in the U.S. and U.K., uncertainty kept some estate consignors on the sidelines. Even blue-chip galleries have felt it: one leading gallery reported a 90 percent slide in U.K. profits alongside a sharp drop in secondary-market revenue—a microcosm of a sector adjusting to smaller, slower deals. (Financial Times)
Where the activity is moving
Two bright spots stand out. First, the low-to-mid market has proven comparatively resilient. Dealers with annual turnover below $250,000 reported double-digit growth in 2024, and fine art auction sales under $5,000 rose, suggesting new buyers are entering at approachable price points or established collectors are spreading risk across more lots. Second, categories adjacent to fine art—watches, jewelry, design and sports memorabilia—continued to pull in bidders and headlines, partially offsetting weakness in paintings and sculpture at the very top. (United States of America)
Private sales are another safety valve. With fewer fireworks in public rooms, auction houses have leaned harder on discreet, brokered transactions; galleries, too, report steadier turnover in the back room than on the art-fair circuit. That shift helps explain why auction tallies can slide even as overall collecting doesn’t collapse—value simply migrates out of public sight. (Bank of America Private Bank)
Geography and taste are changing
The market’s center of gravity still tilts toward the United States, which held about 43 percent of global sales last year, but dealers and banks alike point to “untapped” demand in regions and categories that weren’t leading headlines two years ago. Old Masters, South Asian modernists and overlooked mid-century figures have all notched notable results this year, even as ultra-contemporary momentum cooled. (Barron’s)
This rotation dovetails with a practical collector mindset: canonical names with traceable provenance and museum traction remain desirable, but price discipline has returned. Works priced in the $100,000 to $2 million band—high enough for quality, low enough to avoid trophy-tax risks—have become the sweet spot for many seasoned buyers.
The statistical picture
- Auction sales: Down 10% year-over-year in H1 2025; third consecutive first-half decline. (Bank of America Private Bank)
- Global market size: $57.5 billion in 2024, –12% from 2023; second annual decline post-boom. (Art Basel Art Market)
- High-end stress: Sales over $10 million –45% in 2024; fewer eight-figure lots at the rostrum. (Barron’s)
- Lower tiers resilient: Under-$5,000 fine-art auction segment grew; small dealers’ sales +17%. (United States of America)
- Category rotation: Luxury collectibles (jewelry, watches, sports memorabilia) posted standout gains at major houses. (Financial Times)
What it means for sellers and buyers
For consignors, timing and pricing strategy matter more than ever. Without a steady flow of guarantee-anchored blockbusters, estimates that were routine in 2021–2022 may now be aspirational. Sellers willing to meet the market—or to transact privately—are getting deals done; those clinging to peak-era comps are more likely to see lots bought in or hammered below expectations. (Financial Times)
For buyers, the pendulum has swung to a measured buyer’s market. Quality works with museum-level provenance at rational estimates are finding multiple bidders, yet the fear of missing out has largely disappeared. That creates opportunities in “quiet” categories and for historically significant artists who were overshadowed by the ultra-contemporary surge.
Outlook: a thinner top, a broader base
The near-term trajectory hinges on two variables: risk appetite and supply. If rate cuts lift financial markets and reduce holding costs, consignments could loosen and trophy confidence may creep back. But even in a friendlier macro, the data point to a leaner top end and a broader base—fewer moon-shot prices, more depth at accessible levels, and continued crossover with luxury collectibles.
In other words, the art market hasn’t vanished; it has re-sorted. The past year’s 10 percent auction dip is less a collapse than a repricing of expectations. After the boom, buyers want value and narratives; sellers want certainty. The houses and galleries that bridge that gap—with sober estimates, stronger private-sale pipelines and a wider lens on what “important” looks like—will be best placed for the next cycle. (Bank of America Private Bank)