The luxury-watch market has lived through a boom-and-bust cycle since the pandemic that rivals any modern collectible. Prices rocketed through 2021 and the first half of 2022 as stimulus cash, crypto fortunes and stay-at-home screen time fed a frenzy for steel sports models. Then the air came out: tighter monetary policy and fading speculative heat triggered a long slide through 2023 and most of 2024. This year the picture looks different. The indices that track thousands of secondary-market transactions show a market that has largely stabilized—and, in pockets, started to recover. (Bloomberg)
Across the five-year window, the headline numbers tell the story. A widely followed composite of 50 highly traded references fell about 42% from its May 2022 peak before finding a floor in 2024; it slipped another ~6% in 2024 to a three-year low, then posted its best half-year since early 2022 in the first half of 2025. A broader index of 300 watches shows prices essentially flat to slightly negative quarter-over-quarter in mid-2025, reinforcing the idea that the bottoming process is well underway. Adjusted for inflation since 2020, real prices today are still lower than five years ago, even if nominal tags have crept back. (Yahoo Finance)
Who held up best, and who got hit hardest
Brand performance diverged once the speculative froth receded. In resale data across 2023–2025, Cartier quietly emerged as one of the most resilient large-scale names, with shaped, jewelry-adjacent designs like the Tank and Santos gaining share while many “hype” sports references deflated. Omega largely tracked the market with modest declines, buoyed by the Speedmaster Professional and steady demand in the $5,000–$10,000 band. By contrast, parts of the LVMH stable—TAG Heuer, Hublot, Zenith—saw steeper quarter-over-quarter drops in early 2025 resale pricing, while Bulgari held roughly flat. Among the “Big Three,” Rolex and Patek Philippe returned to near-stable quarterlies in mid-2025, with Audemars Piguet still a touch softer as Offshore and Code 11.59 pieces weighed on otherwise solid Royal Oak demand. (Chrono24)
At the brand-share level, the power hierarchy barely budged during the downturn: Rolex sits around one-third of global Swiss watch retail by value, with Cartier, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet following, and independents gaining mindshare via limited production and boutique distribution. That dominance matters on the secondary market, where liquidity and transaction depth support tighter bid-ask spreads for the biggest names. (Chrono Hunter)
Model by model: the icons that defined the cycle
Three references became shorthand for the Covid-era mania: Rolex Daytona 116500LN, Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711, and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak “Jumbo” 15202. Each spiked to extraordinary premiums over retail in 2021–22, then retraced.
The Daytona 116500LN (white dial especially) routinely traded more than 70% above list at the peak. Today, after two years of normalization and a new-generation Daytona in market, the 116500LN still changes hands in the mid-$20,000s versus a last list of about $14,800, a premium—but a more rational one. GMT-Master II “Pepsi” 126710BLRO remains one of the few steel Rolex pieces to show clear year-over-year gains during the doldrums, with current resale around $19,000 against an ~$11,100 MSRP, reflecting persistent scarcity. (WatchCharts)
The Nautilus 5711, discontinued in 2021, became the poster child for exuberance. The green-dial 5711/1A-014 spiked into the hundreds of thousands after its short run ended; broader 5711 pricing has since cooled, with typical asks now under $110,000 depending on dial and set, still multiples of the historical retail around $35,000. (WatchCharts)
The Royal Oak 15202 followed a similar arc: a blast-off in 2021–22, then a step-down to levels that remain well above pre-pandemic norms. Current asking levels for steel “Jumbo” pieces commonly sit $50,000–$70,000 depending on completeness and condition; select precious-metal or special-dial variants can be much higher. (Chrono24)
Beyond the headliners, collector attention rotated. Cartier Tank and Santos, Grand Seiko “White Birch,” Tudor Black Bay 58/54, and neo-vintage pieces from the 1990s drew steady demand as buyers sought character and value below the $10k threshold. At the same time, exuberant premiums on some avant-garde models faded quickly once liquidity dried up—one reason dispersion across brands widened in 2024–25. (Business Insider)
Why prices fell—and why they stopped falling
The causes of the correction are now well understood. Higher interest rates made finance-and-flip trades less attractive. Crypto wealth—an important marginal buyer cohort in 2021–22—eroded. Supply quietly improved as manufacturers ramped production and authorized dealers received more inventory, shrinking grey-market premiums. On top of that, Swiss export values slipped ~2.8% in 2024, a sign of cooling at the top end. (Financial Times)
Two forces have helped stabilize prices in 2025. First, retail prices continued to rise, particularly for precious-metal models—Rolex lifted gold references by up to ~8% at the start of the year on the back of surging bullion—narrowing the spread to secondary values. Second, flagship brands embraced structured resale: Rolex’s Certified Pre-Owned program expanded across hundreds of doors, bringing warranty-backed inventory (and higher prices) to the official channel and setting a visible benchmark for condition and authenticity. WatchCharts estimates the Rolex CPO market at roughly $300 million in 2024, triple its debut year. (Business Insider)
Are luxury watches still a “good investment”?
The answer depends on time horizon, brand and the word investment. As financial assets, watches underperformed equities and even cash during the 2022–24 downturn. The broad 50-model index is still down double-digits over two years; even after 2025’s rebound, it remains more than 20% below the 2022 peak. After inflation, most pieces bought at bubble prices are in the red. But as durable luxury goods with enduring demand and finite supply, top-tier references continue to act as stores of value relative to many discretionary purchases. (Bloomberg)
For collectors thinking like investors, three guidelines emerged from the cycle:
Liquidity over hype. Watches with deep, global secondary markets—Rolex steel sports, select Patek Nautilus/Aquanaut, and core Royal Oak references—retained the best bid even in weak tape. Today, a late-gen Daytona or Submariner Date still commands a premium to MSRP; a 5711 or 5167 Aquanaut remains a commodity-like blue chip; and the 39-mm Royal Oak “Jumbo” sits on a wide, international demand base. (WatchCharts)
Character brands can compound quietly. Cartier showed that elegant, shaped designs with broad fashion appeal can outperform when the market de-speculates. Modest percentage gains on large volumes can be powerful, and price stability in downturns matters more than eye-popping spikes. Omega’s steadiness—anchored by the Speedmaster Professional—offered similar ballast. (FashionNetwork)
Avoid the fad tax. New-hot references without long waiting lists or deep historical backstory tended to round-trip the hardest once liquidity tightened. The takeaway: buy what you’d be happy to wear if the spreadsheet never turns green.
Price snapshots and how dealers are quoting today
At the time of writing, indicative North American resale pricing (clean examples, box/papers) sits roughly at: Rolex Daytona 116500LN mid-$20,000s; Rolex GMT-Master II “Pepsi” just under $20,000; Nautilus 5711 commonly $90,000–$120,000 by dial; Royal Oak 15202 steel $50,000–$70,000+ with meaningful upside for rare variants. These levels vary by condition, service history and dealer reputation. On the primary side, MSRP creep—especially for precious metals—continues, compressing some premiums and pushing aspirants into pre-owned. (WatchCharts)
Authorized dealers across Canada and the U.S. report shorter wait times than in 2021–22 for bread-and-butter steel sports models, though allocations for halo pieces remain scarce. The Rolex CPO counters at large chains and independent jewelers have become an important release valve for demand: inventory is curated, warranties are standardized, and pricing is deliberately above non-certified pre-owned—effectively a convenience and confidence premium. Analysts estimate 2024 Rolex CPO sales at roughly $300 million, with more doors onboarding through 2025. (WatchCharts)
So… what’s “best” right now?
If the goal is wealth preservation with upside optionality, Rolex steel sports remains the default answer. The Daytona family and GMT-Master II references enjoy the deepest liquidity, while the Submariner line delivers the most stable turnover and the narrowest spreads. In the high-ticket tier, a Nautilus 5711 or Aquanaut 5167/5968, and a classic Royal Oak—particularly 39-mm “Jumbo” lineage—retain the strongest store-of-value credentials, albeit at entry prices that already embed long-term optimism. For risk-balanced collectors, Cartier Tank/Santos and Omega Speedmaster Professional offer recognizable icons with smaller drawdowns and a broad buyer pool—an attractive combination if you want to wear the watch now and worry less about timing the market. (WatchCharts)
The outlook
Two macro variables will shape the next leg: rates and retail pricing. If policy rates ease in 2026, risk appetite could return and lift transaction volumes—and prices—at the margin. On the supply side, brands are unlikely to reverse recent list-price increases, especially with gold costs elevated. That dynamic pushes more shoppers into the pre-owned channel, where stabilization has already begun. For buyers, the moral of the past five years is clear: buy the watch because you love it; choose references with deep secondary-market liquidity; and treat any upside as a bonus rather than a plan. In a calmer market, that approach has quietly started working again. (Business Insider)